The rise of GLP-1 drugs and anti-obesity medication
The glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) is a hormone that affects the metabolism by stimulating insulin secretion and suppressing appetite. GLP-1 medications, such as Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy, designed for weight loss and diabetes management, have surged in popularity in the past year. Ozempic’s sales hit $3.2 billion in Q2 2023, up from $2.1 billion the previous year, while Wegovy generated $1.1 billion in the same period.
Recent research from Morgan Stanley predicts that the US anti-obesity medication (AOM) patient pool will grow to ~7% of the population over the next decade. This increase is expected to support a behavioural shift among consumers, further accelerating trends towards health-conscious choices and driving demand for innovative snacks, beverages and meal replacements.
How is GLP-1 consumption impacting consumer choices?
Reduced food spending:
- A recent Numerator survey with over 100,000 respondents in the US showcased how households with GLP-1 weight loss users have decreased food spending at a rate six times faster than non-GLP-1 households, highlighting the tangible influence of these medications on consumer behaviour.
- In October 2023, Walmart released a quarterly update revealing a decline in shopping demand from people taking drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy. Walmart US CEO John Furner told Bloomberg, “We definitely see a slight change compared to the total population, […] a slight pullback in overall basket. Just less units, slightly less calories.”
Shift towards healthier options:
- Where GLP-1 users are not cutting back on quantity, they are increasingly switching to foods with less sugar, saturated fat, and sodium. In one Morgan Stanley study, AOM patients reported a 23% reduction in daily meals and 50% reduction in snacks, while opting for more fruit and vegetables and weight management meals.
- It is important to note, however, that food and beverage companies have already been cutting sugar from beverages, and reducing sugar, saturated fat, and sodium from many of their foods, so in many respects, GLP-1 drugs may just accelerate this trend.
Portion control and packaging:
- A 2024 study by food product innovation specialist Mattson found that GLP-1 users prefer smaller, nutrient-dense portions, prompting changes in product packaging and portion sizes.
F&B industry response to GLP-1 drugs
So far, established food and beverage companies appear largely unaffected by the hype around GLP-1 drugs, having already initiated moves in response to consumer shifts toward healthier lifestyles. However, GLP-1 has certainly brought new opportunities for innovation and growth for big players and opened avenues for niche health-focused companies.
As GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic reduce appetites and calorie intake, their increasing prevalence is expected to impact demand in the packaged food and beverage sectors. Consequently, F&B companies must monitor developments in this area and adapt their strategies, focusing on R&D investments and product portfolio expansion.
Strategic moves and innovations
The fight against obesity and the advent of GLP-1 drugs have prompted strategic actions among F&B companies, including notable mergers and acquisitions, like Mars’ $800m acquisition of Kevin’s Natural Foods in 2023. Another important trend, surrounding product reformulations and new product development, has been a rise in alternatives and complementary products.
The rise of GLP-1 drugs has driven F&B companies to innovate more aggressively in two main areas: natural alternatives to GLP-1 medications and complementary products to address side effects such as decreased muscle density and gastrointestinal issues.
Natural alternatives:
Prebiotic fibre-based alternatives
- Supergut has developed bars and shakes with resistant starches and beta-glucan that mimic GLP-1 effects in the gut.
- Comet’s ARRABINA fibers release GLP-1 and Peptide YY (PYY) hormones to suppress appetite and improve glucose regulation.
Microbe-containing products
- Pendulum uses the bacterium Akkermansia muciniphila to potentially improve insulin sensitivity and increase GLP-1 production.
- Asahi Breweries has patented the addition of mannan to beverages to promote GLP-1 secretion.
Plant-based alternatives
- HUM Nutrition’s Best of Berberine supplement supports glucose and fat metabolism.
- Solae (DuPont) filed a patent for a soy protein hydrolysate with enhanced cholecystokinin (CCK) and GLP-1 releasing activity.
Dairy-derived alternatives
- Nestlé patented nutritional compositions with human milk oligosaccharides to increase GLP-1 secretion in infants and and a milk protein hydrolysate for weight management and satiety.
- Arla Foods has published a patent pertaining to soluble whey protein aggregates that can increase GLP-1 secretion.
Companion products:
Companies are also looking into the adaptation of existing products as so-called companion options for GLP-1 users, focusing on gut health and mitigating potential side effects.
- Nestlé patented a glycine and N-acetylcysteine-based food composition to prevent muscle loss.
- Herbalife introduced Herbalife® GLP-1 Nutrition Companion to maintain muscle mass and digestive health.
- Daily Harvest launched a GLP-1 Companion Food Collection with pre-portioned, low-calorie meals high in fiber and essential nutrients.
Long-standing focus on healthier formulations
Despite the recent focus on GLP-1 drugs, F&B companies have long been innovating to meet health-conscious consumer demands. For example, Mondelēz International recently told AgFunder analysts that AOM drugs have so far had a negligible impact on their revenues as 20% of its sales are already in snacks that are less than 200 calories. Likewise, PepsiCo’s well-established portfolio strategy of limiting sodium, fat, and sugar in its snacks, along with reducing portion sizes, also positions the company to be prepared for changing consumer habits.
So, where do the next big opportunities lie?
Far from being an existential threat to the processed food industry, GLP-1 drugs represent an opportunity for creative food marketers and formulators to further innovate and cater to this growing market.
AI and data analytics are being leveraged by companies such as Mattson to analyse consumer surveys and identify GLP-1 users’ food preferences to provide inputs for new product development. AI-generated food concepts that have shown promising take-up with focus groups include pre-portioned, high-protein snacks and products providing additional hydration, such as electrolyte-enhanced fruit popsicles.
Additionally, the patenting activity by F&B giants like Danone, Unilever and Nestlé reveals a focus on food products incorporating peptides and hormones, beyond GLP-1, such as GLP-2, gastrin, amylin, Peptide YY (PYY), GIP, reelin, CCK, glicentin, and oxyntomodulin, which play a key role in appetite regulation, glucose metabolism and satiety.
Partner with us for future-focused insights
The correlation between GLP-1 usage and the surge in health-focused products is apparent. However, it remains ambiguous whether these changes result from an overall consumer trend or are directly linked to GLP-1 medications.
While there are tangible shifts in consumption habits and preferences, the current impact of Ozempic and other drugs on the F&B sector seems to concentrate on the types of products being offered and the way they are being marketed to cater to a more health-conscious demographic.
As this space continues to evolve, staying attuned to consumer demands – and anticipating future trends – is crucial. Our patent and technology research experts are here to support your company in monitoring innovations that shape the future. We provide insights into the product development strategies of leading market players, helping you stay ahead of the curve.
Our intelligence can specifically assist your procurement team in adapting to market changes by monitoring shifts in ingredients and product formulations. These insights will keep you informed about the latest trends and empower you to develop data-driven strategies to navigate market challenges effectively.
Get in touch today to learn more and stay ahead in the ever-changing F&B sector